“分久必合，合久必分”

(After a long split comes a union, after a long union comes a split)

Used to describe the cyclical nature of Chinese history, this proverb reminds me of a comment made by University of Oregon professor Yong Zhao. A few months ago I met with Yong Zhao to discuss some volunteer work I was about to do with his department, and I forget why, but at one point he said, “China doesn’t have five thousand years of history; it has had a hundred years fifty times.” At first I was struck by the humour in this remark, but later I realised just how much truth there was in it as well. Looking back at Chinese history we can see a succession of various dynasties, each of which seems to follow the same cycle:

1. A new ruler unites China under a new dynasty, and gains the “Mandate of Heaven” (similar to Divine Right), giving their rule a seal of approval from Heaven 
2. Under this new dynasty, China achieves prosperity
3. The population increases
4. Corruption becomes rampant in the imperial court, and the empire begins to enter decline and instability
5. A natural disaster wipes out farm land and, together with the corruption and overpopulation, causes famine
6. The famine causes the population to rebel and a civil war ensues
7. The ruler loses the Mandate of Heaven and, by extension, their legitimacy
8. The population decreases because of the violence
9. China goes through a warring states period
10. One state emerges victorious
11. The state starts a new empire
12. The empire gains the Mandate of Heaven
13. The previous 12 steps repeat themselves (thanks Wikipedia!)

The implications of this cycle are profound. For one thing, it means that China, throughout its vast history, has not experienced the same evolution of political and economic models that other parts of the world have in a fraction of the time. To paint an Olympic metaphor, it’s like a relay race in which, rather than smoothly handing the baton to their successors, the runners fight over the baton until only one is left standing, at which point they attempt to keep hold of it for as long as possible before eventually and inevitably losing it to a stronger rival.

Many of the hundreds of Chinese people I’ve met have been very proud of their country’s long history, and not without reason. However, it can’t be denied that much of that time has been squandered, and that with more of a continuous thread running through its history, the China of today would be by far the most advanced nation on earth.

Incidentally, the dynastic cycle is said to have ended at the beginning of the 20th century, with the founding of the Republic of China. However, if we take the Communist Party to be the latest dynasty, then it is already at Stage Four. So much for learning from history…